Homestead DraftKings Strategy and Optimal Ownership

Jordan McAbeeDFS Breakdowns, DraftKings, Homestead

Kyle Busch 2018 Homestead Fantasy NASCAR

The final NASCAR DraftKings slate of 2018 is here! Be sure to check out my DraftKings Projections post for my GPP plays, fades, and point projections, and you can check out the chart below on where I’d like to be ownership-wise when it comes to the drivers this weekend. As far as the practices on Saturday, Joey Logano ($10,600) looked the fastest and is also the lowest-priced of the Championship Four. His ownership percentage should be plenty high. Next fastest was probably Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,300) and then Kyle Busch ($11,600), although Kyle Larson ($10,000) had a ton of long run speed that will play dividends in today’s Ford EcoBoost 400. As far as lineup construction, chances are you’re going to need two of the drivers mentioned above. We usually see at least two dominators here at Homestead, and the Championship Four always have a boost in performance in this race.

Please note that my “Ownership Target” designation is for GPPs, not cash games. There’s a different strategy there and I tend to like being underweight on drivers that are good cash game plays. Good luck to everyone today, hopefully we can win some money and close out the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series on a strong note!

DriverDK PriceStarting PositionProjected DraftKings PointsOwnership TargetNotes
Denny Hamlin$8,800 138.7Fade
Kyle Busch$11,800 276.6OverweightSee my Projections article for notes
Martin Truex Jr$11,300 356.4UnderweightI don't like how this car has performed since "the announcement"
Brad Keselowski$9,400 450.2OverweightSee my Projections article for notes
Joey Logano$10,600 568.4Moderate ownershipMaybe even a bit underweight. His speeds and lowest price of Championship Four will make him high owned
Kurt Busch$9,200 626.8UnderweightStarts too high, priced too high
Erik Jones$8,200 741.2UnderweightWill probably be higher owned because of strong practices and lower price
Ryan Newman$7,500 820.8Underweight
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,300 921.8Underweight
Aric Almirola$8,400 1040.5OverweightLove this play this weekend. He was great at Chicagoland
Kyle Larson$10,000 11100.4OverweightSome place differential + high dominator potential at a good price
Kevin Harvick$12,500 1266.9Overweight
Alex Bowman$7,400 1324.8Low Ownership
Chase Elliott$9,700 1441.4Moderate ownershipShould end up between 6th and 9th. Is that worth the price with low dominator potential, though?
Ryan Blaney$8,600 1542.9Moderate ownershipHas a strong car but questionable track history
Austin Dillon$7,700 1635.1Moderate ownershipI like the play but hard to fit in that at that price
Matt Kenseth$6,700 1727.4Moderate ownershipGood track history
Daniel Suarez$7,800 1822.4Moderate ownershipModel doesn't like him but I don't mind the play. Like Dillon, though, that price is tough
Jimmie Johnson$8,000 1929.9UnderweightNot great here, or this season overall
AJ Allmendinger$6,500 2024.8OverweightHomestead is a great track for AJ and he has an average finish of 18.3 on Playoff 1.5-mile tracks
Jamie McMurray$7,100 2130.2OverweightAgain, when Larson has speed, so does McMurray. Jamie is also averaging a finish of 13.2 over the last five Homestead races
Paul Menard$7,000 2238.0Overweight
Bubba Wallace$5,900 2318.6Underweight
Michael McDowell$5,600 2423.2Overweight
David Ragan$6,300 2521.0UnderweightToo hiigh of a price for me
Clint Bowyer$9,000 2644.1UnderweightChalk play but I really don't like his momentum
Chris Buescher$6,100 2727.0OverweightShould challenge for a top 20
William Byron$6,900 2823.6UnderweightChalk play for place differential, but he's been awful at 1.5-mile tracks. And we're at one that it's really easy to hit the wall
Matt DiBenedetto$5,400 2916.6Moderate ownership
Regan Smith$5,800 3019.6OverweightGood pivot off of McDowell, but hard to trust Smith
Ty Dillon$6,400 3122.6Moderate ownershipToo hiigh of a price for me, and he'll need attrition
Landon Cassill$5,200 3213.6Moderate ownership
JJ Yeley$5,100 3313.4Moderate ownership
Corey Lajoie$4,900 3419.2OverweightThe 72 car has been very good at 1.5-mile tracks this year. Hopefully LaJoie can keep it off the wall
Kyle Weatherman$5,000 3512.6Low Ownership
BJ McLeod$4,600 3611.2Low Ownership
Tanner Berryhill$4,700 3710.2Fade
Timmy Hill$4,800 3807.2Fade
Ross Chastain$5,300 3923.8OverweightShould get between 6 and 10 place differential points