FanDuel NASCAR Driver Fantasy Predictions for Dover

Jordan McAbeeFanDuelLeave a Comment

Now that Talladega is over with, Fantasy NASCAR players will get a “real” sample of the FanDuel world with the AAA 400 at Dover. Now, most of us have been playing DraftKings for quite a while, and even through FanDuel is another DFS option, the scoring is so different that you really have to focus on one thing and one thing only: finishes. Yes, drivers get 0.1 points per lap led in FanDuel, but if you have the winner in your lineup, you’re probably going to gather those points anyway.

What I’m trying to say is that your focus in FanDuel should be in having as many drivers that could finish inside the top 10 as possibly among your “starting five.” That means finding those guys that are under $9,000 in salary that have a chance of making their way to the front. Unfortunately, with a track like Dover, we rarely see surprise names up front, but it’s not unheard of.

FanDuel Strategy Driver Targets at Dover

Note: I’m not going to use this space to talk about the “obvious” drivers of the weekend. With the scoring being so close in these FanDuel games, you need to have a strategy when putting together your lineups, and that’s what I would consider the following drivers.

Photo Credit: Matt Hazlett/Getty Images

Jimmie Johnson ($12,300) – If you can fit Jimmie Johnson into your FanDuel lineup on Sunday, go ahead and pull the trigger. They have him priced at a ridiculous $12,300 this weekend, but that’s going to keep his ownership percentage down significantly. The good news is that Jimmie Johnson should have a very good car to race with. He went out there and just logged laps (57 to be exact) during Happy Hour on Saturday, and Jimmie only does that when he’s happy with the car. In fact, the last time he did that was at Bristol, and he ended up finishing 3rd in that race. The #48 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 19th when the AAA 400 goes green on Sunday, and while I don’t like putting a huge emphasis on place differential with FanDuel, those points could be very valuable with a guy like Johnson. Plus, can you really go against a guy that has won eleven different times at “The Monster Mile?”

Clint Bowyer ($10,500) – There’s going to be a lot of FanDuel players that will be targeting Aric Almirola this weekend, simply because he looked very fast in both practice session and he’s pretty under-priced for what he may be able to accomplish on Sunday, costing $9,400. But what about his teammate, Clint Bowyer? Yeah, he’s going to cost an extra $1,100, but Bowyer has a much better history at this track, and he seemed very confident about his car when interviewed during Happy Hour on Saturday–something that doesn’t happen very often. I still love Almirola as an option this weekend, but Bowyer is a great pivot off of Aric, just in case the #10 team has problems on Sunday (or mysteriously fades like at Richmond a couple weeks ago). Bowyer had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour on Saturday and could end up being a top 5 threat in this year’s AAA 400. He finished 6th here in last year’s fall race.

William Byron 24 Car 2018 Fantasy NASCAR

Photo Credit: Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

William Byron ($7,800) – I’m a little worried about Byron’s ownership percentage being sky-high this weekend, but at the same time, this guy has a chance at finishing near the front in his first Cup Series start at “The Monster Mile.” Not only does William Bryon have Jimmie Johnson as a teammate (and eleven-time Dover winner) to lean on, but he also has a pretty fast car as well; after ending up 10th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning, Byron was 8th-fastest in Happy Hour. In terms of ten-lap average, the rookie ranked 6th-best in both of those sessions, so it will be interesting to see just how much that speed translates to the race on Sunday. For what it’s worth, Byron finished 6th and 3rd in the two Xfinity Series races at Dover last season.

FanDuel Projections for the Dover AAA 400

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base points + laps led as well as the dollar per FPT. It assumes that all drivers projected to finish 15th or better will complete all laps, those projected 15th-20th will finish 1.5 laps down, those projected 20th-30th will finish 3 laps down, and those projected 30th-40th will finish 5 laps down. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverFanDuel SalaryAvg Proj FPTSStarting PositionAvg. Projected FinishProj Laps LedDollar Per FPT
Kevin Harvick$12,10095.6203.6178$127
Kyle Busch$12,70086.8402.255$146
Chase Elliott$11,50085.3602.640$135
Jimmie Johnson$12,30079.61908.011$155
Martin Truex Jr.$11,80078.9304.631$150
Joey Logano$11,00077.71808.43$142
Kyle Larson$12,00077.2105.844$155
Clint Bowyer$10,50075.51208.411$139
Aric Almirola$9,40073.71310.215$128
Brad Keselowski$11,30070.5809.82$160
Denny Hamlin$11,20070.21010.61$160
Ryan Blaney$10,70068.11413.42$157
William Byron$7,80067.31714.80$116
Daniel Suarez$8,30067.2711.84$124
Ryan Newman$9,60066.82116.40$144
Erik Jones$9,80066.11113.60$148
Austin Dillon$8,70064.72719.80$135
Alex Bowman$9,10064.41516.00$141
Kurt Busch$10,20064.0914.41$159
Kasey Kahne$7,30064.02519.60$114
Jamie McMurray$8,60063.02319.60$137
Darrell Wallace Jr.$7,50062.52620.80$120
David Ragan$5,80062.23223.00$93
Paul Menard$8,00061.22019.80$131
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$8,80056.3518.22$156
AJ Allmendinger$7,10054.82826.60$130
Ty Dillon$6,30053.13028.40$119
Michael McDowell$6,80052.02928.80$131
Trevor Bayne$6,00050.92227.20$118
Chris Buescher$6,60050.61625.40$130
Matt DiBenedetto$5,60049.22429.00$114
Landon Cassill$5,10049.03332.00$104
Corey LaJoie$5,00048.53834.00$103
Gray Gaulding$5,00046.43534.40$108
Ross Chastain$5,00045.03134.00$111
Reed Sorenson$5,20044.73435.20$116

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