DraftKings Phoenix 2 Can-Am 500(k) NASCAR Projections

Jordan McAbeeDraftKings

These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday afternoon’s Can-Am 500(k) at Phoenix International Raceway, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me. 

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  • This weekend’s race is a relatively short one, with Sunday’s event only scheduled to be 312 miles in length. That means there will be 78 FPTS for laps led up for grabs and probably around 140 FPTS for fastest laps (depending on how many cautions there are).
  • Phoenix International Raceway often turns into a “follow the leader” type of race. That means if a car that is at least pretty good on the long runs gets out front, he/she should stay there. Drivers with fast pit crews should have a bit of an advantage on Sunday.
  • Phoenix was repaved and reconfigured in the middle of the 2012 season, so you can pretty much throw out any race data from before that fall 2012 race. You can probably disregard that race, too, as a lot of teams had no clue how to handle the “new” track.
  • If you’re looking for a similar venue to study, the closest is Richmond. Essentially, Phoenix is set up as a backwards Richmond.

Projected FPTS at Phoenix 2

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverDraftKings SalaryStarting PositionAvg. Projected FinishProj Laps LedAvg Proj Base + Laps Led FPTSDollar Per FPT
Kyle Busch$11,100802.47567.2$165
Denny Hamlin$8,900202.89866.1$135
Kevin Harvick$10,000602.46362.2$161
Brad Keselowski$9,5001607.8044.4$214
Jimmie Johnson$9,8001207.6843.4$226
Chase Elliott$9,300405.22243.1$216
Martin Truex Jr$11,300505.01242.0$269
Kyle Larson$10,200306.81537.2$275
Kurt Busch$7,9001511.0037.0$214
Dale Earnhardt Jr$8,0001411.4035.2$227
Matt Kenseth$9,200708.6234.3$268
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,2002719.2032.6$221
Ryan Blaney$8,200108.61732.1$256
Ryan Newman$7,1001815.0032.0$222
Joey Logano$9,100910.6031.8$286
Kasey Kahne$7,4001714.8031.4$236
Clint Bowyer$8,7002016.8030.4$286
Austin Dillon$7,7002117.8029.4$262
Daniel Suarez$7,5001012.4029.2$257
Erik Jones$8,3001113.0029.0$286
Aric Almirola$6,1002219.6026.8$228
Jamie McMurray$8,5001315.4026.2$324
Ty Dillon$6,9002923.8025.4$272
Trevor Bayne$6,7002523.6021.8$307
Landon Cassill$5,7003227.8020.4$279
Chris Buescher$6,6003127.6019.8$333
AJ Allmendinger$6,4002323.6019.8$323
Danica Patrick$6,3002424.2019.6$321
Paul Menard$6,5001922.2018.6$349
David Ragan$6,0002625.8018.4$326
Michael McDowell$5,8002828.8014.4$403
Corey Lajoie$5,4003332.4012.2$443
Derrike Cope$5,0004036.2011.6$431
Jeffrey Earnhardt$4,7003835.2011.6$405
Cole Whitt$5,3003433.4011.2$473
D.J. Kennington$4,6003735.8009.4$489
Matt DiBenedetto$5,5003032.6008.8$625
Kyle Weatherman$4,5003937.6007.8$577
Joey Gase$4,9003536.0007.0$700