DraftKings AAA Texas 500 NASCAR Projections

Jordan McAbeeDraftKings

These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday afternoon’s AAA Texas 500, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me. 

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  • This weekend’s race is 500 miles in length, which equals 334 total laps. That means there will be 83.5 FPTS for laps led up for grabs and probably around 150 FPTS for fastest laps (depending on how many cautions there are).
  • Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile race track, and throughout the 2017 season, we’ve seen many similar faces up front at tracks of this length. Be sure to study those races.
  • When looking at track history, don’t forget that Texas was repaved and reconfigured during the offseason last year. The Cup Series has really ran only one race on this “new” Texas.
  • With the repave and reconfiguration, many people now believe that Kentucky Speedway is the most similar race track to Texas.

Projected FPTS at Texas 2

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverDraftKings SalaryStarting PositionAvg. Projected FinishProj Laps LedAvg Proj Base + Laps Led FPTSDollar Per FPT
Martin Truex Jr$11,000701.89271.8$153
Chase Elliott$9,1003404.81471.1$128
Kevin Harvick$9,800303.36056.0$175
Matt Kenseth$8,9003511.2055.4$161
Joey Logano$9,4003612.7054.8$172
Kyle Busch$10,600503.83452.5$202
Kyle Larson$9,7001105.31849.1$198
Denny Hamlin$8,800207.06247.5$185
Dale Earnhardt Jr$7,9001711.3038.6$205
Trevor Bayne$7,2003720.7038.2$188
Jimmie Johnson$9,600909.0037.0$259
Jamie McMurray$8,1001309.7035.8$226
Clint Bowyer$8,7002013.8035.2$247
Ryan Blaney$8,500809.81233.0$258
Kurt Busch$8,400111.33231.8$264
Brad Keselowski$10,0001011.0031.6$316
Ryan Newman$7,5002521.0030.6$245
Kasey Kahne$8,2001917.3030.2$272
Erik Jones$8,000411.5529.3$274
Daniel Suarez$7,300612.3528.1$260
Chris Buescher$6,6002621.2027.6$239
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,8001216.0024.8$315
Ty Dillon$6,9002724.2022.6$305
Austin Dillon$7,7001519.0021.4$360
Corey Lajoie$5,4003931.3019.8$273
Aric Almirola$6,2001821.7019.2$323
AJ Allmendinger$6,5001621.5018.8$346
Paul Menard$6,3002124.2017.8$354
Danica Patrick$6,8001422.0017.6$386
Michael McDowell$5,7002325.7015.4$370
Gray Gaulding$4,9004035.3013.6$360
Reed Sorenson$5,0003834.7012.4$403
David Ragan$5,9002429.0010.0$590
Landon Cassill$5,5002228.0010.0$550
Matt DiBenedetto$5,3002831.7008.8$602
Cole Whitt$5,2002932.7007.8$667
Jeffrey Earnhardt$4,8003236.2003.2$1,500
Joey Gase$4,7003036.0002.4$1,958
Ray Black Jr$4,6003138.30-01.8$999,999