DraftKings Chicagoland NASCAR Projections

Jordan McAbeeDraftKings

These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Saturday’s Tale of the Turtles 400, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me. 

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  • Sunday afternoon’s race is scheduled to be 267 laps in length, which means there will be 66.75 FPTS awarded for laps led and probably around 115 FPTS awarded for fastest laps (depending on cautions).
  • The pole sitter has really struggled here at Chicagoland over the last four years. Over those four races, the pole winner has led a combined 109 laps and has averaged a finish of 23.5. With that being said, Kyle Busch–who is the pole sitter this weekend–looks really fast, and there’s a good chance that he will buck that trend.
  • Las Vegas, Kansas, and Kentucky are all 1.5-mile tracks that are most similar to Chicagoland when it comes to banking. Martin Truex, Jr. won at all three of those tracks earlier this year.
  • Last year at Chicagoland, Martin Truex, Jr. went to victory lane after starting 6th, and that’s the best starting spot of a race winner here since 2008, when Kyle Busch won from the pole. Additionally, four of the last five Chicagoland winners have started outside of the top 10 entirely.
  • Last year’s Chicagoland race was the first time since 2012 that a driver had more than 44 fastest laps in the race (out of 267 scheduled laps). Truex posted 67 fastest laps in last year’s race.
  • Click here to read my DraftKings Plays and Fades for Chicagoland.
  • Click here to read my DraftKings Pivot Options for Chicagoland.

Projected FPTS at Chicagoland

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverDraftKings SalaryStarting PositionAvg. Projected FinishProj Laps LedAvg Proj Base + Laps Led FPTSDollar Per FPT
Martin Truex Jr$10,700302.87963.0$170
Kyle Busch$10,600102.27259.8$177
Brad Keselowski$9,400505.63446.3$203
Erik Jones$8,4002411.0046.0$183
Kevin Harvick$10,100406.03444.5$227
Chase Elliott$9,900806.21844.1$224
Kyle Larson$10,400604.41043.7$238
Matt Kenseth$9,3001007.6239.3$237
Jimmie Johnson$9,1001410.0238.5$236
Denny Hamlin$9,700205.41238.2$254
Kurt Busch$8,1001711.4038.2$212
Ryan Newman$7,5001611.2037.6$199
Ryan Blaney$8,7001209.6337.6$232
Jamie McMurray$8,5001913.4036.2$235
Kasey Kahne$7,7002518.4032.2$239
Dale Earnhardt Jr$7,9002016.2031.6$250
Joey Logano$9,000711.0129.3$308
Paul Menard$6,8002821.4029.2$233
Michael McDowell$5,8003022.8028.4$204
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,4001515.8027.4$270
Clint Bowyer$8,2001114.2026.6$308
Ty Dillon$6,9002320.2026.6$259
Trevor Bayne$7,1002621.8026.4$269
Daniel Suarez$7,8001315.4026.2$298
Danica Patrick$6,6002220.2025.6$258
Aric Almirola$6,0002119.8025.4$236
AJ Allmendinger$6,5002924.2024.6$264
Austin Dillon$7,300916.2020.6$354
David Ragan$5,2003127.2020.6$252
Landon Cassill$5,6002725.8019.4$289
Matt DiBenedetto$5,7003228.6018.8$303
Cole Whitt$5,4003530.4018.2$297
Chris Buescher$6,3001823.2015.6$404
Corey Lajoie$5,0003331.2014.6$342
Jeffrey Earnhardt$4,8003734.2012.6$381
Reed Sorenson$5,1003432.8012.4$411
Brett Moffitt$4,6004035.8012.4$371
Gray Gaulding$4,7003634.6010.8$435
Ray Black Jr$4,5003936.6009.8$459
Timmy Hill$4,7003836.2009.6$490