Matt Kenseth 2013
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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Atlanta – Advocare 500
We’re to our yearly stop at Atlanta Motor Speedway this week. From 2002 to 2010, there were always two events at this track, but that changed in 2011 (I think to make a spot for the race at Kentucky Speedway, although I may be wrong). Atlanta is a 1.5-mile race track and what many people consider one of the typical “cookie cutters” on the circuit. The others include: Charlotte, Chicago, Kansas, Kentucky, Las Vegas, and Texas.
During The Last Race At Atlanta…It was Jeff Gordon who started 5th and pretty much dominated most of the race, leading 146 of the 325 laps en route to his third (and ultimately last) win of the 2011 season. His teammate, Jimmie Johnson, finished runner-up with Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, and Carl Edwards rounding out the top 5. Kasey Kahne won the pole for 2011′s race but had engine problems and finished 34th.
Practice Schedule…This is what I like to call a “normal” weekend, but people that play Yahoo! Auto Racing have a bit of a disadvantage because rosters lock before the cars get any track time. On Friday, there will be one practice session and then qualifying, at 2:30 pm and 6:00 pm, respectively. Then on Saturday, the drivers will get even more track time, with another practice starting at 2:30 pm and Happy Hour set to begin at 5:30 pm. The AdvoCare 500 should start around 7:30 pm on Sunday night. All times are in Eastern.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Advocare 500:
1. Jimmie Johnson – I’m still dumbfounded as to how someone can start in the rear at Bristol and finish 2nd, all while looking average at best during all of the practice sessions that weekend. This team is just that good, and should be the most recent winner on the intermediate tracks. As long as their engine stays together on Sunday, however, there’s no doubt in my mind that Johnson will be contending for the win when it’s all said and done. He does have the best average finish here in the series (10th). Jimmie finished 2nd here last season, as I said before, and since driver rating has started to be kept (in 2005), he’s only had two races at Atlanta under 90.0. The #48 is just about as close to a lock for a top 5 this weekend as you can get. They’re just that good right now, and if it continues into the Chase, they’ll be holding the trophy in Homestead (or even before then).
2. Kasey Kahne – Kasey has finished 2nd and 3rd in the last two intermediate track events and, although this isn’t one of his best tracks, should be in contention on Sunday night. He’s in more reliable equipment than he was last year when he sat on the pole, and there’s no doubt that Hendrick has more power than Red Bull as well. Kasey has two wins here (in 2006 and 2009), and going with that little trend of three years apart, this could be his year as well. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit, I’ll say that, and would lock him into the Chase. Kahne has almost as many bad finishes here as good ones, but many of the bad ones weren’t exactly his fault (wrecks, mechanical issues, etc.). When you take those out of the mix, Kasey’s average finish jumps up to 4.4 at Atlanta. Barring any kind of issue like that, the #5 should be up front early and often on Sunday.
3. Greg Biffle – The Biff has never won at Atlanta but he is coming off that impressive victory at Michigan and should be a contender come Sunday. In seventeen career starts here, Greg has averaged a finish of 16.1 and has recorded nine top 10s. When you go simply off of that, he really doesn’t deserve this ranking. But when you consider how solid this team has been on the intermediates this season, that should change your mind. Just check out this chart. In allocation leagues like Yahoo!, it would take the #16 looking like a dominating, race-winning car in practice to use him this weekend. This isn’t his best track, and I’m sure you’re like me and only have a small amount of starts left. Still, Biffle should at least be good for a top 10 on Sunday night, if not a top 5. Right now I’m not seeing a win out of them, but that could change.
4. Denny Hamlin – Denny Hamlin won at Kansas and recently finished 2nd at Charlotte and 3rd at Kentucky, so it is possible that we see back-to-back wins out of this team. Overall, Atlanta hasn’t been a very good track for Denny, but he tends to run well. In the last four races here, he has led a total of 135 laps, but has just two top 10s to show for it. What I caution you about in taking the #11 this weekend is how inconsistent this team has been on the intermediate tracks in 2012. It seems like they’re either a top 5 car or one that finishes 11th or much worse. There’s no in between, just check out this chart. Hamlin finished 3rd here in 2008 and won the pole for this event two years ago. Don’t let his 17.5 average finish here scare you away, Hamlin should be good once again this weekend.
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – This team has been a top 10 machine on the intermediate tracks this season (chart here) and that shouldn’t change this weekend in Atlanta. This is actually Junior’s third-best track on the circuit, believe it or not. In twenty-four career starts here, Earnhardt has recorded ten top 10 finishes and just five outside of the top 20. When you average it all out, he usually ends up around 12th or 13th. Junior even won here back in 2004, and although he hasn’t finished inside the top 10 in the last six events here, that should change on Sunday. He had six straight finishes of 7th or better at Atlanta from 2001 to 2004, and this team is as strong as ever this year.
6. Brad Keselowski – Penske Racing as a whole have been very good at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and they actually have a better average finish than the Roush-Fenway bunch here since the start of the 2010 season, believe it or not. Keselowski wasn’t too good in his first two starts here (finishing 36th and 25th) but turned it around last season and ended up with a solid 6th-place finish after starting 14th and leading two laps. This team had a bad day last Saturday in Bristol but I don’t think that should affect them too much right now. They’re still one of the strongest teams in the garage right now (in my mind) and should bounce back. Remember, Brad won at Kentucky and finished 2nd at Michigan a couple weeks ago, and if this race comes down to fuel mileage, I’d pick Paul Wolfe over pretty much anyone else. Kurt Busch won the first 2010 race at Atlanta in the Blue Deuce and finished 6th in the second event that year.
7. Carl Edwards – This is where Cousin Carl needs to win. Plain and simple, he doesn’t make the Chase this year unless he’s in victory lane at the end of the 500 miles on Sunday. He’s won here three separate times so it’s definitely possible. When you look at Carl’s record at Atlanta, it’s a whole bunch of good runs mixed in with some bad ones, which bring down his average finish of 13.6. When you take away the terrible finishes (four that have been 37th or worse), however, his average finish jumps to an incredible 3.2. Seriously. Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 7th at this track except for the races I mentioned earlier (one he got parked, one was an engine problem). If there’s been any bright spot in this team’s 2012 season, it has been their performance on the intermediate race tracks–just check out this chart here.
8. Matt Kenseth – Throughout the entire season, Matt Kenseth has generally been a lock for a top 5 ranking at tracks like Atlanta. However, I’m seriously starting to question what’s going on with this team. Has the announcement of Kenseth leaving Roush-Fenway after this season finally done some damage to them? In the six races since Daytona in July, where he finished 3rd, Matt has posted just one top 10 (a very surprising one at Watkins Glen) and has averaged a finish of 20.2. He’s pretty much locked into the Chase, so will Kenseth “take it easy” for the next couple races? And will his new feud with Tony Stewart cause trouble on Sunday night? Everything I pointed out are just things to keep in mind this weekend. At Atlanta, Kenseth owns an average finish of 12.9 in twenty-three career starts, and although he has never won here, he does have twelve straight finishes of 13th or better at this track.
9. Martin Truex, Jr. – Atlanta has been a nice track for Truex over the past two years and with the way that this team is firing on all cylinders this season, that should equal a good run for him on Sunday. Last year, Martin brought his Toyota home in 14th after leading 3 laps and starting 8th. In 2010, Truex had a very solid driver rating of 104.6 throughout the race and ended up finishing 12th. He loves running the high line on the intermediate tracks and that should work very well here at Atlanta this weekend. Believe it or not, Truex has the fifth-best average finish (8.9) on these types of tracks this season, which is better than drivers like Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth (chart here). Anything other than a top 10 out of the #56 on Sunday would be surprising to me.
10. Jeff Gordon – The #24 Chevy will, in all reality, probably be contending for a top 5 on Sunday, but I want to see some practice before I jump to that conclusion. As I said before, Gordon was the best car here last time around and has a pretty good record at Atlanta throughout his career. In thirty-eight career starts here, Jeff has amassed twenty-four top 10s, fifteen top 5s, and has visited victory lane five separate times. His average finish of 12.2 here is third-best in the series right behind Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart. A statistic that I like to see is consistency, and Jeff Gordon has that at Atlanta: he hasn’t finished outside the top 20 here since 2005 (twelve races) and has recorded nine top 10s during that span as well. He finished 5th most recently at Kentucky, another 1.5-mile race track.
11. Kyle Busch – Rowdy has had some good cars here at Atlanta recently, but I still think he’s in somewhat of a defeated mindset. Yes, he’s in the second wildcard spot, but that could easily change. Personally, I’d like to pick a driver this weekend with some more desire, as well as one that has been stronger on the intermediates this season (Kyle’s average finish is 12th–chart here). In the last five Sprint Cup events at AMS, Busch has qualified in the top 10 in all of them and led at least 19 laps in three of them. Do you know what he has to show for them, though? Pretty much nothing: one top 10 and an average finish of 16.8. He won here in 2008, so it’s not like he’s completely clueless at this track. Kyle finished 10th and 13th recently at Kentucky and Michigan, which are two tracks that I mentioned earlier that are similar to Atlanta.
12. Clint Bowyer – Clint is generally hit or miss when the series comes to Atlanta, so keep that in mind if you pick him this weekend. Or, in other words, make sure that #15 looks speedy in practice. In eleven career starts at this track, Bowyer owns an average finish of 17.4 and five top 10s. On the flip side, the other six starts have ended with him in 20th or worse. Like I said, hit or miss. It’s been somewhat of the same story for this team on the intermediate tracks this season as well (chart here). Keep in mind, however, that Bowyer has been one of the hottest drivers in the garage over the last two months, with five top 10s in the last six Sprint Cup races. The other race was his 15th-place effort at Indianapolis. Bowyer has a lot more going for him this weekend than he does going against him, I’ll say that.
13. Kevin Harvick – Happy Harvick is getting a rank on here this weekend simply because of his recent performance at Atlanta. I still think this team is off in some way, but maybe the crew chief change will turn things around. It’s certainly possible, but until that happens I would consider going with someone other than Harvick. In allocation leagues especially, there are better options. Anyway, in the last seven races at this track, Kevin has recorded five top 10s and has an average driver rating of 96.3. He’s been good for a finish between 10th and 15th on the intermediate tracks all season and that shouldn’t change on Sunday. He’s finished 15th or 16th in each of the last four Sprint Cup series races.
14. Paul Menard – This team could lose Slugger Labbe this weekend, which would knock them down a few spots in my book, but I’m still thinking that Paul Menard is good for a solid top 15 on Sunday. He has finished inside the top 20 in all but one of the intermediate track races this season and has an average finish of 14.8 (chart here). He finished 18th at Atlanta last season and had a career-best 5th-place finish here in 2010 while driver for Petty. What I really like is this team’s momentum, however. With his 10th-place finish last week, Menard has now finished 14th or better in all but one of the last eight Sprint Cup races, and that lone exception was a 17th-place effort at New Hampshire. Be sure to keep an eye on the crew chief suspension story this week.
15. Marcos Ambrose – Well look what we have here: a playoff push from Marcos Ambrose. This team now has four straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action–three of which have been top 5s–and are in striking distance (albeit still quite far away) from the second wildcard birth. The Tasmanian has had some good runs on the intermediate tracks in his career and is definitely someone you should keep an eye on this week with the way this team has been running. At Atlanta specifically, Marcos has made six career starts, and although his average finish of 22nd is a bit scary, in two of the last three events here he has finished 10th and 11th. In the last five intermediate track races, Ambrose has three top 10s and just one finish worse than 13th (chart here).
Those To Avoid Entering The Advocare 500:
Tony Stewart - It’s really odd how hit-or-miss this team has been on the intermediate tracks in 2012. As you can tell from this chart (click here), Smoke has four top 5s on them as well as four finishes outside of the top 20 entirely. This team lacks consistency and that’s not something that I like go with in fantasy racing, especially this late in the season. What Stewart does have on his side this weekend is his record here at Atlanta; in twenty-five career starts at this track, Smoke averages a finish of 11.2 and has won three times. I wouldn’t blame you for picking him this weekend, but if you do, make sure you have a backup plan.
Mark Martin - I’m starting to think that Mark Martin is getting a “free pass” from people as of late. The point of the matter is this: he has one lone top 10 in his last eight Sprint Cup starts. That’s it. Also, thus far in 2012, Martin has managed the exact same number of single-digit finishes as he has DNFs. Obviously most weren’t his fault, but I personally like to keep a low level of risk in fantasy racing during weeks like these. This is the AdvoCare 500, and I stress the “500″ part of that. We’re going to be going at least 500 miles on Sunday night, and with three practice sessions scheduled throughout Friday and Saturday it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see the engine in that #55 blow…once again. Until this team starts limiting the amount of laps that Mark runs each weekend–thus keeping the workload on the motor light–I won’t be picking him.
Joey Logano – Sliced Bread is making one final leap of faith to get into this year’s Chase, but it’s simply not going to work this weekend unless something drastic happens. This is Logano’s worst track on the circuit, and an extra “push” by the team isn’t going to fix his problems here. In five career starts here, Joey has an average finish of 27.6 and has never ended up better than 22nd. Among those with a better average finish than Logano in as many (if not more) starts here at Atlanta: David Gilliland, J.J. Yeley, and David Stremme.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Michigan 2 – Pure Michigan 400
It seems like it’s been forever but the Sprint Cup Series is back on an intermediate race track this week with the Pure Michigan 400 at Michigan International Speedway. This track was re-paved before the last race here (back in June) and this time around the teams will be working with a brand new tire from Goodyear. The race is 400 miles this week meaning the cars will run 200 laps around this D-shaped oval on Sunday. Michigan is one of two 2-mile tracks on the circuit, with the other being Auto Club Speedway in California.
During The Last Race At Michigan…Fan favorite Dale Earnhardt, Jr. spanked the competition here back in June, leading 95 of the 200 laps and breaking his win-less streak that stretched back to 2008. Tony Stewart, who won back at Auto Club Speedway this season, finished 2nd followed by the Roush teammates of Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle. Those three led 18, 17, and 38 laps, respectively. It was “Five Time” Jimmie Johnson who rounded out the top 5 that day.
Practice Schedule…We will get practice both before and after qualifying this week, although for Yahoo! Auto Racing players that means that the rosters will lock down before seeing the cars on the track. The first practice of the weekend is set to begin at 12:30 pm on Friday followed by qualifying at 4:00 pm. Most cars in the first session will be focused solely on qualifying trim. Then on Saturday we have an early practice for the second weekend in a row as the cars will hit the track at 8:30 am sharp followed by Happy Hour at 11:00 am. All four can be seen on SPEED and the times are in EST.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Pure Michigan 400:
1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Steve Letarte said on Twitter that the #88 team is bringing back the same chassis from June and that should worry the competition considering how strong they were then. I never thought I’d say this, but I think Junior could get his second win of the season here on Sunday. He has two wins at Michigan International Speedway and has finished inside the top 10 in almost 35% of his starts here. While that number isn’t that great, the way that this team has been running on the intermediates this season is: Earnhardt has an average finish of 7.3 and an average driver rating of 105.1. With Pocono and Watkins Glen, this team has now had two terrible weeks in a row for the first time this season, but I expect the #88 to bounce back in a big way on Sunday. Remember, Junior ended up 3rd back at Auto Club Speedway, the other 2-mile race track on the circuit.
2. Greg Biffle – When you look at the last five races here at Michigan, The Biff has had some great runs but doesn’t exactly have the finishes to show for it. In those events, Greg has averaged a driver rating of 117.3 but has just three top 10s to show for it. This team has been top notch on every intermediate track this season, though (chart here) with an average finish of 7.0. The #16 ended up 6th back at Fontana and followed that up with a 4th here at Michigan back in June. Remember, this is Ford’s playground and the Roush cars are always fast. In the last three races at this track, Biffle has led a combined 192 laps, which is much more than anyone else in the series. Statistically Michigan is his 5th-best track on the circuit, and Greg has visited victory lane here twice (most recently in 2005). This team would love a second win before the Chase and it could happen this weekend.
3. Matt Kenseth – After a little three-race slump, the #17 team bounced back with an 8th-place finish at Watkins Glen (his career best there, by the way). That should give them a little momentum coming into Michigan, which has been Kenseth’s third-best track on the circuit. In twenty-six career starts here, Matt has an average finish of 9.3 and has visited victory lane twice in addition to his seventeen top 10s. He finished 3rd here back in June and should be top 5 material once again this weekend. On the intermediate tracks this season, the #17 car has been the sixth-best in the series when it comes to driver rating (chart here). Again, there’s really no reason to go against the Roushkateers this weekend, as they all should at least be fighting for a top 10 once the checkered flag waves on the Pure Michigan 400.
4. Jimmie Johnson – This team’s main mission right now is to win races, and with the races here at Michigan sometimes ended up as fuel mileage races, you can bet that Chad Knaus will pull the trigger and take a gamble. For fantasy owners, that can have great consequences or terrible ones. However, if Sunday’s race doesn’t come down to a variable like fuel mileage, you can expect the #48 to be a top 5 car at least. Nobody has been better on the intermediate tracks this season (chart here) and although he has never won here, Johnson has finished inside the top 5 in each of the last two events at Michigan. This team has been a top 5 machine lately and are in “Chase” form in my opinion. Whether that’s a good thing for them or not is yet to be determined, but it’s great for fantasy owners right now.
5. Tony Stewart – This summer has been a bit of a disappointment for Tony Stewart and the #14 team, so make sure they look pretty good in practice before going all in with them. Smoke won the rain-shortened event in Fontana and followed that up with a 2nd-place finish here back in June. This is actually his fifth-best track on the circuit and Stewart has now finished 9th or better in each of the last five Michigan events. He has notched an incredible nineteen top 10s in twenty-seven career starts here and should be in the running for a twentieth on Sunday. The only thing that worries me about Tony this weekend is how incredibly inconsistent this team has been on the intermediate tracks this year (chart here). He could win or finish 20th, I’m not 100% sure right now. Be sure to check back at ifantasyrace.com for my final predictions for this week’s Pure Michigan 400 after Happy Hour on Saturday.
6. Brad Keselowski – In case you missed it, I posted an article earlier this week on Brad Keselowski and how good he has been during the summer these past two seasons. You can read it by clicking here. Michigan is BK’s home race track and he will be looking to back up his 3rd-place finish in this race last season on Sunday. Back here in June, Keselowski was decent, finishing 13th, but he has momentum on his side this time around and is the most recent intermediate track winner. With each passing week, it’s getting more and more difficult not to at least consider Brad on your rosters. If you want an off-sequence type pick this weekend, the Blue Deuce would be your best choice.
7. Jeff Gordon – This team had a little slip up last weekend in Watkins Glen, but I fully expect them to bounce back here at Michigan. In a whopping thirty-nine career starts here, Gordon has an average finish of 11.3 and twenty-five top 10s. He has finished 6th in each of the last two events here and has recorded five in the last seven. Gordon has finished 7th, 6th, and 5th in the last three intermediate track races (chart here) and is probably going to need another win to get in the Chase this year. I don’t think that will happen this weekend, but a top 10 is definitely within the #24 team’s reach.
8. Clint Bowyer – Clint finished 13th back at Auto Club Speedway and following that up with an 7th-place finish here at Michigan in June. That makes it three straight top 10s for Clint at this track, and he should challenge for a fourth-straight on Sunday as well. Bowyer has an average finish of 14.9 on the intermediate tracks this year (chart here) and has been pretty solid in the last month of Sprint Cup action. Clint has an average finish of 17.5 here at Michigan International Speedway but should be much better than that on Sunday.
9. Kyle Busch – It’s crunch time now for Kyle Busch because he’s on the outside looking in at the Chase wildcard. The good thing for him is that he is the defending winner of this event and he has the seventh-best average driver rating in the last five races at Michigan. What could turn fantasy racers away from the #18 this weekend, though, is the chance that he tries too hard and ends up putting the car in the fence on Sunday. Back in June, Rowdy started 34th and got up to 7th before blowing a tire and ending his day, finishing 32nd. You can’t predict things like that happening, and if something similar doesn’t happen on Sunday, Busch should be good for a top 10. Make sure you pay attention the #18 in practice, though, as this isn’t Kyle’s best track (16.6 average finish).
10. Martin Truex, Jr. – Truex has been the fourth-best driver on intermediate tracks this season (chart here) and he should be strong once again this weekend. Back in June, Martin ended up 12th after starting 16th, and at Fontana he ended up 8th. He owns a career average finish of 17.1 here at Michigan with runner-up finishes in both events back in 2007 while at DEI. It’s hard to go against the guy that has the fourth-most points in the series over the last six races (chart here). If Truex is able to put up a top 10 qualifying effort on Friday, I expect him to challenge for a top 10 finish on Sunday. The story of his year has been if he qualifies well, he races well.
11. Ryan Newman – With an 11th-place finish last weekend at Watkins Glen, “The Rocketman” now has finished 11th or better in each of the last five Sprint Cup series races. It’s evident, too, as only five drivers have scored more points than him over the last six Cup events (chart here). The good thing for Newman is that this week we’re at a track that he owns two career wins at (the most recent in 2004). The #39 should be top 15 material all weekend and have a shot at the top 10 on Sunday if they play their cards right. He finished 15th here back in June and 5th and 6th in the two events prior.
12. Carl Edwards – Cousin Carl started in the back of the field back here in June and came home with an 11th-place finish. I’m still not sure what I think about the Carl/Chad Norris pairing, though. I’m kind of giving them the benefit of the doubt, though, considering the Roush Fords are always real strong here at Michigan. Statistically, this is Edwards’ second-best track on the circuit with an average finish of 8.4 in sixteen career starts. He won here in 2008 and while I don’t think that’s going to happen again on Sunday, a top 10 is definitely possible out of the #99. Carl has averaged a finish of 9.3 on the intermediate tracks in 2012 (chart here) and finished 5th back at Auto Club Speedway in March.
13. Kasey Kahne – Kahne started 4th here back in June but really fell back pretty quickly and ended up getting caught up in a wreck with Joey Logano and finishing 33rd and 49 laps down. The #5 Chevy should have some power here this weekend, which is a good thing, but it’s all up to Kasey and the team to get the car handling well for the race. If they can accomplish that, Kahne should be good to go. One thing to remember, however, is that Kasey likes to run the high line and with the re-pave that might not be the fastest way around the track. He has had the 8th-best average driver rating on the intermediate tracks this season (chart here) and should improve upon his average finish of 16.5 here at MIS. Don’t forget that this team is pretty hot as of late, with the second-most points scored in the series in the last six races (chart here).
14. Denny Hamlin – With finishes of 29th and 34th in the past two weeks, this team needs a rebound and Michigan could be the perfect place for it. Remember, Hamlin almost won the race back in Fontana but Darian Grubb made a questionable pit call late in the race with rain looming and Hamlin finished 11th. He had a driver rating of 115.1 in that race, though, so that tells you how good the #11 was. Denny has finished 34th and 35th in the last two Michigan races but has four finishes of 3rd or better in the last seven. Typically the Joe Gibbs Toyotas are really good here or just mediocre with no middle ground. Watch this team closely in practice if you’re thinking about picking Hamlin, although I do think that there are a lot better picks this weekend (and safer ones as well).
15. Mark Martin – Martin has a career average finish of 13.6 here at Michigan and was running solidly inside the top 10 here last June before having an engine problem late and ending up 29th. That’s the one issue I have with the #55 this weekend, as I have had for the last month or so as well, and part of the reason why I have Mark ranked 15th going into the weekend. The engine failure at Watkins Glen last weekend with Brian Vickers behind the wheel doesn’t help much either. However, you can’t predict mechanical failures, and with no problems Martin should be good for a top 15 on Sunday. He finished 12th back at Auto Club Speedway in March.
Those To Avoid Entering The Pure Michigan 400:
Richard Childress Racing - This entire organization is off a little bit and lacking speed. This includes Kevin Harvick, Paul Menard, and Jeff Burton. Harvick or Menard could net you a top 15 finish this weekend, but I wouldn’t expect much more. If the #29 or #27 look really fast in practice this weekend I might change my mind, but right now I think it’d be best to steer clear from the RCR Chevrolets this weekend. There’s just too many other (better) options.
Juan Montoya - He hasn’t even been able to get the finish at the road courses this year, so why would you trust Montoya on the ovals? He did finish 8th here back in June but Juan hasn’t finished better than 14th in Sprint Cup action since then. In eleven career starts here at Michigan, JPM has an average finish of 21.8 and just four finishes inside the top 15. On all of the intermediate track races thus far in 2012, Montoya has averaged just a 17.0 finish. I wouldn’t expect this team to be anywhere close to where they ended up back in June.
Casey Mears - I like to use Mears on the intermediate tracks in allocation leagues, but not this week. Why? This team plans to start and park. As far as the C Group goes in Yahoo!, Trevor Bayne is racing again this weekend. He started 7th back in June here but had an engine problem and finished 43rd. Another driver to consider is Bobby Labonte, who has finished 15th and 16th in the last two Michigan races.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Watkins Glen – Finger Lakes 355 at the Glen
This week the Sprint Cup Series is at the second and final road course event on the schedule. In years past we generally saw some new faces up front on Sundays, but the Cup regulars have really closed the gap between themselves and the ringers. We only visit Watkins Glen and Sonoma once per year, so there’s not a whole lot of data to go off of this week. These races can easily come down to fuel mileage, and any driver’s day can be messed up quite easily if they get booted off track.
During The Last Race At Watkins Glen…Kyle Busch started on pole and led over half of the laps but it was Marcos Ambrose who visited victory lane that day. Busch finished 3rd, right behind Brad Keselowski, with Martin Truex, Jr. and Joey Logano rounding out the top 5.
Practice Schedule…It’s going to be a pretty normal weekend at The Glen. First there is a practice session on Friday starting at 12:00 noon. Happy Hour will then be ran four hours later, followed by qualifying on Saturday at 11:30 am. The Finger Lakes 355 should start around 1:15 pm on Sunday. If you play Yahoo! Auto Racing, that means we get to see practice before setting our rosters, which is nice. All times listed are eastern.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Finger Lakes 355:
1. Jeff Gordon – Although I don’t really believe it, Jeff Gordon may need two wins to get into the Chase, and this might be his best shot for the next month. He now has finishes of 6th or better in six of the last seven Sprint Cup races, and this little hot streak started back in June at Michigan. After that race was Sonoma where Gordon started on the outside pole and led 13 laps en route to a 6th-place finish. At Watkins Glen, he was unstoppable from 1994 to 2001, grabbing four victories and six total top 5s. Since then, though, this track has been hard on the Rainbow Warrior, as Gordon has just two top 10s in the last ten years here. Still, I like the way this team is running and I think they will challenge for the win on Sunday, although this is the one ranking that may change a lot after practice and qualifying. Be sure to check out www.ifantasyrace.com Saturday afternoon for my post-qualifying Predictions for the Finger Lakes 355.
2. Jimmie Johnson – I’m getting as tired of ranking Jimmie Johnson near the top every week as you are of reading about him, but I can really think of no reason to go against this team. The hot streak they’ve been on is seriously reminding me of their Chase performances throughout Johnson’s five championships. At Sonoma, Jimmie started 3rd and despite not leading any laps, finished a solid 5th. At The Glen, he has an average finish of 14.2 in ten career starts with five top 10s, including a 10th-place finish last season. Although he has never won here, Five Time did finish 3rd back in 2005. Also, one last thing, expect the #48 to qualify near the front on Saturday; in the last eight Watkins Glen races, Jimmie Johnson has just two starts outside of the top 5 and has won two poles.
3. Tony Stewart – Smoke finished 27th here last season (with a driver rating of 96.2, so he wasn’t terrible) but when you look past that you see that the guy has won five of the last ten races at this race track. Another impressive statistic about Stewart at The Glen is that he’s completely 100% of the laps ran here since he made his first start back in 1999 (he finished 6th, by the way). At Sonoma, Tony finished 2nd, and he should definitely be a threat for a top 5 come Sunday. He definitely has some momentum on his side, with just one finish worse than 12th in the last eight Sprint Cup races. Statistically this is Stewart’s best track on the circuit.
4. Clint Bowyer - In case you don’t remember Sonoma back in June, Clint Bowyer basically dominated, leading 71 of the 112 laps and grabbing his only win so far this season. It was somewhat surprising, but not really. Clint has been a pretty good road racer and this year he has Juan Montoya’s old crew chief on the pit box. At Watkins Glen, Clint has an average finish of 17.5 in six career starts with a best finish of 9th (back in 2009). I expect him to better that on Sunday. The entire Michael Waltrip Racing stable should be stout once again, just like back in June at Sonoma.
5. Marcos Ambrose – There’s no such thing as a sure pick in fantasy racing, but Marcos Ambrose is about as close as you can get to that at Watkins Glen. He’s made four career starts here and has never finished worse than 3rd, which is incredible. As I said before, he finally got into victory lane here last year, and don’t be surprised if we see the same thing this weekend. Back at Sonoma, Ambrose was the runaway favorite to win, winning the pole and looking dominant throughout the practices, but faded early. He still came back with a top 10, though (8th).
6. Juan Montoya – Yes, I was one of those that got screwed by Montoya back in June at Sonoma when he finished 34th. You can’t predict mechanical problems, though. I do think that the Colombian is losing his edge on these road courses, though, and it will be interesting to see how this team looks in practice. Believe it or not, I might keep the #42 off of my rosters on Sunday. Anyway, Montoya won this race in 2010 and is on a streak of four-straight top 10s at The Glen. When you take out his 39th-place finish in his first start here (I think that was when he got together with Mr. Happy Harvick), Montoya’s average finish here is 4.5. He will definitely be a favorite among fantasy racers this weekend, so I can’t blame you for not picking him.
7. Kyle Busch – Rowdy has actually been one of the best at Watkins Glen believe it or not, and a good run is just what this team needs right now. However, are you willing to take the risk? It seems like the bad luck bug has hit this team all year, so I wouldn’t be opposed to staying away from the #18 this weekend. Still, if nothing happens mechanically, Busch could easily win this race and pretty much guarantee his spot in the Chase. He was great here last season, like I said earlier, and even visited victory lane from the pole at The Glen back in 2008, having a near-perfect driver rating of 145.1. Kyle ended up 33rd in his first start here back in 2005, but since then has never finished worse than 9th on this road course.
8. Martin Truex, Jr. – SLEEPER ALERT! If you can call Martin Truex a sleeper this season… Don’t forget how great the MWR Toyotas were back in Sonoma (Truex looked well on his way to a top 6 finish until late and had the 5th-best driver rating), and I’m expecting something of the same out of them here at Watkins Glen this Sunday. Some people will look at Martin’s average finish of 14.3 here and go with another option, but don’t forget he finished 4th here last season and had runs of 6th and 5th in 2007 and 2008 with running for DEI. I don’t think he’ll win, but Truex could surprise some people on Sunday.
9. Kevin Harvick – Happy Harvick is a generally a pretty solid pick here at Watkins Glen (12.9 average finish and seven finishes of 11th or better in eleven starts), but I really don’t like how this team is running right now. It seems like they’re way off every week, and if they’re lucky and actually hit on something all they can muster is a finish of around 8th or so. Harvick started mid-pack back in June at Sonoma and made his way up for a decent 16th-place finish. There are better options than the #29 this weekend, but right now I’m penciling Harvick in for a top 10 finish. If he looks slow in practice, though, expect him to drop in my final rankings on Saturday.
10. Matt Kenseth – Kenseth isn’t too bad here at Watkins Glen but I bumped him up this week simply because of how great this team has been all season. He started 9th and finished 13th back at Sonoma while having the 10th-best driver rating (96.7). Over here at The Glen, Kenseth has been the definition of consistent over the five years, with every single race ending with him between 12th and 14th in the running order. In allocation leagues like Yahoo!, I’d stay away from the #17 this weekend, but it wouldn’t hurt to take a shot with him in other leagues–just don’t expect a win or anything.
11. Carl Edwards – I really wish Carl Edwards was running a little bit better this season because Watkins Glen is generally a very good track for him. In seven career starts here Carl has an average finish of 8.7 with a worst finish of 19th (first start here in 2005). What’s surprising is that he’s never led a lap at this track (even in 2010 when he won the pole) although Edwards has completed every single lap in the events that he has started here. We’ll have to see what kind of setup Chad Norris can come up with this weekend. Edwards finished 21st back in Sonoma with Bob Osborne at the control.
12. Brad Keselowski – Well, with his 4th-place finish in Pocono last weekend, Brad Keselowski now has five straight top 10s and has finished 13th or better in all but one Sprint Cup race since the end of May. What I really like about this team is how good Paul Wolfe usually is with fuel mileage calculations and gambling. BK has made two starts here at Watkins Glen and has finished 20th and 2nd. That runner-up finish came last year and was during the time when Brad was super hot after his ankle injury (making it all the more impressive, in my opinion). The Blue Deuce came home 12th back in Sonoma and that’s about where I have him penciled in for Sunday, too.
13. Joey Logano – As I said earlier, Logano finished 5th here last season, and he followed that up with a 10th-place run at Sonoma earlier this year. I think he could fly under the radar this weekend simply because of his average finish of 18th here at The Glen. I’m not saying right now that Joey will finish in the top 10 on Sunday, but it’s certainly possible. If this team has a fast car right off the truck, I’d recommend giving Logano a hard look before setting your rosters. In Yahoo! there will be several other drivers to choose from, but the #20 could be a good out of sequence pick this weekend.
14. Kurt Busch – To make one thing clear real quick: don’t put too much emphasis on Kurt Busch’s 3rd-place effort at Sonoma earlier this season. In case you forgot, something broke on the car late in the race (surprising, huh?) and Tony Stewart had no idea how Kurt limped it home to the checkered flag. That being said, it’s hard to look past that good run, and we rarely get the opportunity to use Kurt this year. He has an average finish of 19.8 in eleven career starts at The Glen, and before his 38th-place finish in this event last season, he had a three-race streak of top 10s here. It’s a very risky pick, but it could pay dividends to take the #51 this week (just like it did back in Sonoma).
15. Brian Vickers – As I said before, I’m expecting the MWR cars to be strong here at Watkins Glen just like they were back in Sonoma, and that includes Brian Vickers, who is taking over the #55 in place of Mark Martin this weekend. Vickers isn’t great here (20.3 average finish in seven starts) but he had one of the best cars back at Sonoma (finished 4th) and has been great in the #55 no matter what track he’s at this season. Brian also finished 11th here back in 2009 while driving for Red Bull, and should be top 15 material on Sunday.
Those To Avoid Entering The Finger Lakes 355:
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – It’s hard to go against a team that is this hot right now, but Junior is just not very good at road course racing. He finished 23rd back at Sonoma and has an average finish of 22.3 in twelve career starts here at Watkins Glen. About the only time you can take the chance on Earnhardt at these type of tracks is if he qualifies up front.
Aric Almirola - In Yahoo! especially, there’s really no reason to pick Aric Almirola this weekend. He started 30th and finished 28th at Sonoma earlier this year, and he has made just one career start here at Watkins Glen (he started 15th and finished 35th back in 2008).
Paul Menard - Same story here with Paul Menard. In eight career starts at Watkins Glen, his average finish has been 24.9 and he has never ended up better than 16th. At Sonoma back in June, the #27 qualified 23rd and came home 20th. This team has been running real well for the last month-and-a-half but there are way too many other options this week other than Menard.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Pocono 2 – Pennsylvania 400
Well it seems like we were just here a little bit ago, but the boys of the Sprint Cup Series are back at Pocono Raceway this weekend for the Pennsylvania 400. This time–hopefully–we shouldn’t have the pit road speeding penalties like we saw back in June. People often compare Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Pocono Raceway now with the re-pavement, so it’s convenient that the Brickyard was last weekend. Last time we were at The Tricky Triangle, it was a good opportunity to use some sleeper picks, so be sure to keep that in mind this week.
During The Last Race At Pocono…Joey Logano led 49 of the 160 laps and bumped Mark Martin out of the way for his first Cup win of the season. The #20 Toyota was super fast all weekend and even won the pole for that event. Martin finished 2nd and then it was Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson who followed him to the line. Finally, the “Pocono Master,” Denny Hamlin, rounded out the top 5.
Practice Schedule…We’re back to a normal schedule this weekend, thankfully. There’s two practice sessions scheduled for Friday, with the first starting at noon and Happy Hour beginning at 3:30 pm. Then, on Saturday, the starting lineup will be set, with qualifying beginning at 10:30 am on ESPN2. The Pennsylvania 400 should start around 1:20 pm on Sunday. All times are in Eastern. For those that play Yahoo! Auto Racing, you won’t have to lock down with your rosters until Saturday morning, so at least we get to see the cars on the track before making a decision.
Looking for fantasy advice that updates after practices and qualifying? How about detailed practice speeds instead of just studying one fast lap? Look no further than www.ifantasyrace.com. Through Wednesday you can get a subscription at 40% off by using the discount code “4years”. Click here for more information.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Pennsylvania 400:
1. Jimmie Johnson – Saying that the #48 team is ‘hot’ is a complete understatement right now. Over the last two months of Sprint Cup action, Johnson is averaging 37.4 points per race–and that’s including his 36th-place finish at the second Daytona race! As I said before, some people are starting to compare Indianapolis to Pocono, and if Johnson starts up front Sunday I think we could see the second dominating performance in a row out of this team. Back in June here at the Tricky Triangle, Five Time started mid-pack, had two speeding penalties, and still finished 4th. He had one of the best cars that weekend–if not the best–and I expect the same to be true this time around. I consider the #48 a lock for a top 5 and I haven’t even seen the cars on the track yet. Oh, and one more thing: Johnson has the best average finish here of anyone in the series (8.8).
2. Denny Hamlin – I personally consider Denny Hamlin the king of Pocono right now and for the past few years. He’s understood this track since his rookie year and his stat line is super impressive: thirteen career starts, four visits to victory lane, and eight top 5s. He has led 660 laps at this track, which is second only to Jeff Gordon, who has 957. However, Gordon also has twenty-six more starts than Hamlin. When you look at the last six events here at Pocono, the #11 has been P1 for at least 19 circuits in all of them, and has never had a driver rating less than 105.7. It also helps that Hamlin had a great run last weekend in Indianapolis, and has been pretty hot over the last two months (four top 6 finishes in seven Sprint Cup races). He’s going to be a favorite pick among fantasy racers this weekend, and for good reason; Denny Hamlin is just that good here at Pocono.
3. Jeff Gordon – Gordon finished 19th here in June, but really had a better car than that for most of the race (just check out his Yahoo! race chart). That was the time when this team was still trying to get out of the slump that they were in, and navigating away from the bad luck. They’ve definitely turned things around, though; with his 5th-place finish in Indianapolis last weekend, Jeff Gordon has now finished 6th or better in five of the last six Sprint Cup races, and the lone exception was Daytona where he ended up 12th. Jeff is a five-time winner at Pocono and has came home with twenty-seven top 10 finishes in thirty-nine starts (69.2%). You just can’t go against this team right now (or any of the Hendrick bunch for that matter).
4. Kyle Busch – This team was nowhere on my radar for Indianapolis (early in the week anyway) but I’m not letting that happen at Pocono this weekend. Kyle’s stats here aren’t great at all (18.3 average finish and only five top 10s in fifteen starts) but I really think this team is hitting on something, and they’re going to need to find victory lane soon to lock themselves into the Chase this year. It seems like Rowdy really got ahold of this place after his fourth season in Sprint Cup. Since then, Kyle has finished 2nd or 3rd in three of his last five Pocono starts, and he started 4th here in June but ended up 30th after an engine problem. Barring any mechanical failure, though, I expect the #18 to challenge for a top 10 finish at least on Sunday.
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Hey, did you hear? Junior is leading the Sprint Cup points! ESPN only mentioned that forty-seven times during the race last Sunday. Anyway, like Kyle Busch, NASCAR’s favorite driver doesn’t have a great history here at Pocono, but he should still be a good pick for fantasy owners come Sunday. Back in June, the #88 led 36 laps and should have challenged for a top 5 but they played the conservative route with fuel and took an 8th-place finish in the end. Earnhardt has been a 4th-place machine here lately, finishing there in three of the last four Sprint Cup races, including last weekend in Indianapolis. He’s on a three-race streak of top 10s here at the Tricky Triangle and should easily make that four straight once the checkered flag waves on Sunday. Heck, it wouldn’t even surprise me to see Junior standing in victory lane.
6. Tony Stewart - Somehow Smoke was able to salvage a top 10 in his home state last weekend, and I think that says a lot about this team right now. Stewart now has just one finish worse than 12th in the last seven Sprint Cup races, and that exception was at Daytona, so I’m not sure it really counts. At Pocono specifically, Tony has made twenty-seven starts and has visited victory lane two separate times, the most recent in 2009. He came home 3rd here in June and could easily challenge for a top 5 this Sunday.
7. Matt Kenseth – Coming off his worst finish of the season last weekend in Indianapolis (35th), Kenseth should be looking to gain some points here in Pocono this weekend–well, in ESPN’s mind, anyway. Matt seemed pretty disinterested in points on Sunday, probably because he’s virtually guaranteed a spot in the Chase this year, barring some kind of epic meltdown that we’ve never seen before. Anyway, Kenseth has a 13.9 average finish in twenty-five career starts at this track, and he always seems to run better here in the summer than in the fall. In the last two August races at the Tricky Triangle, Matt has finished 16th and 18th, and in the last two June races he has finished 7th and 8th. That’s worth noting, so if the #17 looks slow in practice, you may want to go with someone else.
8. Kevin Harvick – “Happy” has five straight finishes of 14th or better at Pocono and I’m expecting something of the same here on Sunday out of the #29 team. What’s worth noting (to me anyway) is that Harvick’s car was junk for most of last weekend and the team still worked on it all day and was able to walk out of Indy with a 13th-place finish. Kevin has made twenty-three starts here in Long Pond, Pennsylvania, and has an average finish of right around 14th. He’s only led 5 laps, believe it or not, and those all came in the 2010 June race. This team hasn’t been able to finish better than 8th in the past two months of Sprint Cup racing, and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Sunday.
9. Greg Biffle – The Biff eventually lost an engine here last time around so don’t get too concerned about his 24th-place finish. What you should remember from that race is that he led 19 laps and was inside the top 10 for pretty much the whole day before he lost a cylinder. Biffle won this race two years ago, and if his performance last weekend at Indianapolis is any indicator, he might have something to say for the field in Pocono on Sunday. However, here’s something to consider: in nineteen career starts at the Tricky Triangle, The Biff has just four top 10s. The good thing is that two of those have come in his last four starts. Right now I’m penciling the #16 in for a top 10 finish on Sunday.
10. Kasey Kahne – Back in June, the #5 Chevy was at least a top 10 car but Kasey Kahne was trying to get more out of it than he could and eventually put it into the wall and finishing 29th. I wouldn’t expect that to happen again this time around, but you never know. Kasey’s stat line at Pocono isn’t the greatest: seventeen starts, 17.7 average finish, and just five top 10s (the most recent coming in 2009). He does have a win here at the Tricky Triangle, though. In the June 2008 race, Kahne started on pole and led 69 laps en route to his second win of that season. He finished 12th at Indianapolis last weekend.
11. Ryan Newman – It would only make sense that when I start mentioning Ryan Newman’s lackluster performance all year is when the team heats up a little bit, wouldn’t it? With his 7th-place finish in Indianapolis last weekend, The Rocketman now has three-straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action and could easily make that four in a row on Sunday here at Pocono. In the last eight events at this track, Newman hasn’t finished worse than 14th and has been about as consistent as you can be. He ended up 12th in the June race here this season and I’m expecting something similar out of the #39 team on Sunday, maybe a little bit better. Newman’s average driver rating of 92.1 over the past five Pocono races is tenth-best in the series.
12. Mark Martin – As I said earlier, Martin finished runner-up to Joey Logano here in June, but this team has fallen off a little bit from where they were a couple months ago, in my opinion. Don’t get me wrong, the #55 Toyota still has speed every week, but it’s more like ‘possible top 10′ speed than ‘possible top 5′ speed. Still, Martin should be a good pick come Sunday as long as he keeps his mileage down during practice. A good thing for the engines this weekend, though, is that it is only supposed to be in the lower 80s during the Pennsylvania 400 on Sunday. Pocono is Mark’s third-best track on the circuit, and although he has never won here, he has finished inside the top 10 in 66.7% of his starts (34-for-51). Also, one more thing worth noting is that in the last five fall races at this track, Martin has compiled four top 10s and a worst finish of 13th.
13. Brad Keselowski – Bad Brad won this event last season, but other than that his performance at Pocono has really been mediocre to say the least. It’s nothing terrible, but not great either: in his four other starts here (excluding the win), Keselowski hasn’t finished better than 18th, but he also hasn’t finished worse than 23rd. So at least he’s consistent, I guess? The Blue Deuce came home 9th last weekend in Indianapolis–making it four straight top 10s for Keselowski in Sprint Cup action–but I’m expecting more of a teens finish from Keselowski at Pocono on Sunday. You also can’t look past the fact that he has just one finish worse than 13th in the last nine Sprint Cup races. As I’ve said a couple times before this season, BK is truly proving himself as a championship contender in NASCAR’s toughest series.
14. Paul Menard - The #27 should be good for a top 15 this weekend, just like he was the entire month of July. His stats here at the Tricky Triangle aren’t great by any means–21.6 average finish in eleven starts–but Menard brought his Chevy home in 9th here in June and has now finished 16th or better in each of the last five events here. He ended up 14th last weekend in Indianapolis and had the 11st-best driver rating in this year’s Brickyard. If he starts up front, Menard would be a great option for a “start saver” in allocation leagues like Yahoo! He qualified 3rd here a month-and-a-half ago.
15. Martin Truex, Jr. – Truex just wasn’t that good here in June, so it will be interesting to see how he fares this time around. If I remember correctly, he was without his crew chief that weekend, which I think made a major difference. He did score an impressive 8th-place finish last week in Indianapolis, though, so hopefully that momentum can carry a couple states over for this #56 team. One thing that’s a little promising about picking Martin this week is that he had three straight finishes of 12th or better at this track before the spring race this year. He’s not firing on all cylinders like he was early on in the season but Truex should be good for a top 15 finish on Sunday with a shot at a top 10.
Those To Avoid Entering The Pennsylvania 400:
Joey Logano - Surprised? This is a weak ‘avoid’ ranking, but it’s still an avoid. For whatever reason, Logano usually isn’t very fast here in the fall race. In the last three summer races, Joey has picked up finishes of 1st, 11th, and 13th at the Tricky Triangle, compared to 26th, 25th, and 27th-place results in the last three fall events. One thing you have to pay attention to with this team is whether they’re fast off the truck. If that’s so, Joey could be of great value to fantasy owners (the #20 was very fast off the truck here last time around).
Carl Edwards - This is, in no way, an “avoid like the plague” warning, but you probably won’t find Cousin Carl on my rosters this weekend for one basic reason: no momentum. Excluding Daytona a few weeks ago, the #99 hasn’t finished inside the top 10 since Charlotte at the end of May. This will be the second week that Edwards’ new crew chief, Chad Norris, will be on the pit box. One thing I liked to hear from Carl after Indianapolis was that this team is now in a “win-or-nothing” mode. That can be great for fantasy owners, but if a gamble doesn’t work out, it could be devastating. Edwards started on the outside-pole at Pocono back in June and had an early on-track incident with Denny Hamlin (I think). He battled back for an 11th-place finish.
Jamie McMurray – The only reason you should consider Jamie Mac this weekend is if he qualifies well and looks okay in practice. That was the story here last June and I rolled the dice with him in Yahoo!. Thankfully, Jamie ran solid all day and grabbed a 10th-place finish. Still, in the last six Pocono races, that is his only finish better than 20th. The same applies for his teammate, Juan Montoya.
Casey Mears - For those that were considering Mears as an option in allocation leagues this week, take notice to this: he will be start & parking at Pocono this weekend, racing at Watkins Glen, and then start & parking at Michigan in August. In other words, don’t pick him for awhile.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Indianapolis – Crown Royal Presents the Curtiss Shaver 400 at the Brickyard
Well, I hope everyone enjoyed the off-weekend because we’ll have a race every week for the next four months up until the end of the 2012 NASCAR season. We’re at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this weekend, and this can be a tricky place to pick at for some because the series only visits the track once per season. Indy is a 2.5-mile flat track and it can be very difficult to pass here. My rankings after qualifying will be a lot more accurate, so I urge you to check for them over at www.ifantasyrace.com on Saturday afternoon.
During The Last Race At Indianapolis…It turned into a fuel mileage race in the end and it was Paul Menard who kissed the bricks and grabbed his first career Sprint Cup Series win. Jeff Gordon, who had the best driver rating in the race (136.0), followed Menard to the line with Regan Smith, Jamie McMurray, and Matt Kenseth rounding out the top 5. Kasey Kahne started on the outside pole that day and led a race-high 48 laps but ended up finishing 18th after spinning earlier.
Practice Schedule…Everything is happening in two days this weekend, which is a first (I believe) in a while. On Saturday, the drivers will hit the track bright and early (8:30 am) for practice, followed by Happy Hour at 10:30 am. The starting lineup will then be set in the afternoon and be televised at 2:00 pm on ESPN. This week’s race will start around 1:15 pm on Sunday afternoon, and this is the point in the season where ESPN officially takes over so you may want to get the radio ready.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Crown Royal Presents the Curtiss Shaver 400 at the Brickyard:
1. Kasey Kahne – If I could see one team going on a run right now and peaking too soon, it would be the #5 team and Kasey Kahne. I’m going out on a limb here putting him at #1, but every single week this car is super fast and capable of winning. And it did, as you probably remember, in Loudon two weeks ago. Kahne’s statistics here at Indianapolis aren’t great (15.9 average finish) but he qualifies well here (7.9 average start) and might have the most momentum of anyone in the garage right now. He had one of the best cars here last season while running for Red Bull but spun late and took himself out of contention (finishing 18th). Kahne finished 4th and 2nd in his first two career starts at this track and it would honestly surprise me if he wasn’t inside the top 5 at the checkered flag on Sunday. Right now, though, I’m saying that Kasey Kahne will kiss the bricks for the first time in his career.
2. Tony Stewart – Steve Addington was able to do decent with Kurt Busch at Indianapolis, so I don’t think that should affect Smoke too much this weekend. This is Stewart’s home track and he has won twice here, most recently in 2007. He has a slight slip-up in 2008 (finishing 23rd) but even with that, Stewart has finished 8th or better in seven of the last eight Brickyard 400s. Statistically, this is his second-best track on the circuit, right behind Watkins Glen. Tony Stewart should be a favorite pick this weekend among many people, and for good reason. That #14 Chevrolet should challenge on Sunday.
3. Jimmie Johnson – Do I really have to go into much detail here? Jimmie Johnson has won three of the last six Brickyard 400s and has started inside the top 3 in three of the last four. This team is solid week in and week out and has just one finish worse than 7th in Sprint Cup action since May (seriously). If you look at Pocono earlier this year, which some people are now comparing to IMS with the re-pave, the #48 finished 4th. You can’t go wrong with picking Johnson this week, but then again when can you? The driver (and team) are just that good.
4. Greg Biffle – I really like that The Biff was able to grab a top 10 at Loudon a couple weeks ago, because I felt like this team was starting to slow down a bit. Indianapolis has been a kind track to Biffle, though–especially recently–and the #16 should be a top 5 car heading into the practices on Saturday morning. In the last four events at this track, Biffle has finished 8th, 4th, 3rd, and 7th and has had an average driver rating of 104.5. He also led 38 laps in the 2010 event. This team has really brought it during qualifying all season and that should pay dividends this weekend.
5. Jeff Gordon – The #24 is strong week in and week out now and Gordon hasn’t finished worse than 6th in the last four “normal” Sprint Cup races (I don’t count Daytona). His stats at his home track are ridiculous, too, so right now I’m considering Gordon a lock for a top 5. Not only has he won on four separate occasions at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but Jeff has finished inside the top 10 in 77.8% of his starts here and inside the top 5 in 55.6% of them. His 476 laps led are by far the most in the series and Gordon has just two finishes worse than 9th over the last eleven years at this track. As I said before, he finished 2nd in this race last year, and it wasn’t because of fuel mileage.
6. Matt Kenseth – The #17 still hasn’t finished worse than 13th since back at Fontana back in March (seriously), and that shouldn’t change this weekend. Even at his bad tracks Kenseth is running well this year, and that’s a good thing because he actually runs pretty decent here at Indianapolis. In twelve career starts here, Matt has an average finish of 14.3 and has racked up five top 5s–the most recent coming last year, when Kenseth finished 5th. That makes it six finishes of 12th or better in the last seven Indianapolis races for the 2003 champ. If you believe what some people say and think Pocono compares to Indianapolis with the repave, remember that the #17 finished 7th earlier this year at The Tricky Triangle. There’s no doubt in my mind that Kenseth with be fast again on Sunday. That statement is almost becoming too repetitive this season.
7. Denny Hamlin – I think this driver and team will be coming out of the gates hot from last week and will be looking for vengeance. Hamlin has been hit-or-miss over the past two months, though, so make sure the #11 is fast in practice. When I say hit-or-miss, I’m talking about the five top 5 finishes compared to the four finishes of 18th or worse. One thing I like about Hamlin this week is his success at Pocono, which some people are now comparing to Indianapolis. Another thing I like is that he should fly under the radar this weekend: in six starts here at the Brickyard, Denny has an average finish of 18.5, which will scare people away. Don’t forget, though, that Hamlin finished 3rd here in 2008 and grabbed a top 10 in his first start back in 2006. Oh, and don’t forget that he now has Darian Grubb on the pit box, who never finished worse than 6th with Tony Stewart at this track. I’m warning you now: don’t brush off the #11 right off the bat this week.
8. Kevin Harvick – Indianapolis has been a very good track for Kevin Harvick, and it is actually his second-best on the circuit (statistics-wise), but this team just seems to be off a little bit every week to me. There’s no doubt in my mind that the #29 will be in the running for a solid top 10 on Sunday, but I don’t see them getting much more than that. In eleven career starts here, Harvick owns an average finish of 10.0 and even won the race from the pole here back in 2003. What I really like is that in nine of his eleven starts here, “Happy” has ended up 11th or better. When you take out his 37th-place finish here back in 2008, Kevin’s average finish jumps to 7.3. Statistically, no one has been better on the flat tracks since the beginning of the 2010 season than Kevin Harvick.
9. Mark Martin – As I’m typing this, the weather forecast for Sunday is calling for a high of around 90 degrees, and that means one thing: more pressure on those engines. This race is 500 miles long and Mark Martin has a tendency to over-do it in practice. I don’t think that it is any coincidence that Martin has had three engine failures in his last seven races. That’s just something to think about. Anyway, barring any mechanical failures, the #55 will no doubt be a good pick this weekend. Although he has never won here at the Brickyard, Martin owns an average finish of 12.9 and has scored top 10 finishes in eleven of his eighteen starts. What’s even better is that he hasn’t finished worse than 11th at this track since 2004. Qualifying will be very important this weekend and Martin has been a qualifying machine all year. He finished 2nd at Pocono earlier this year, a track some compare to Indianapolis.
10. Brad Keselowski – Typically I’m reminding people not to look too much into BK’s past at a certain track, but he hasn’t fared too bad at Indianapolis. In two starts here, Keselowski has finished 19th and 9th, and he even led eleven laps in last year’s event. This team is proving many people–myself included–that their Chase birth last year was no fluke, and you have to consider the Blue Deuce a threat pretty much every week. Over the last eight Sprint Cup races, Keselowski has just one finish worse than 13th, and he’s on a three-race streak of top 10s with that 5th-place finish in Loudon a couple weeks ago. He’s definitely someone to keep an eye on this weekend.
11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – His record here is pretty tough to look at, but this is the new and improved Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and like Brad Keselowski it’d hard to look at his past and go completely off of it. Junior has made twelve career starts at this historic race track and has come away with only two top 10s and an average finish of 21.7. What’s even more scary is that he has completed only 91.8% of the laps ran. Still, how can you go against this team? You really can’t. Earnhardt finished 4th last week at Loudon–his fifth finish of 6th or better in the last eight races–and ended up 8th at Pocono earlier this year, which some people compare to Indy. It’s hard to recommend a guy at one of his worst tracks on the circuit but Earnhardt is an exception to that rule right now.
12. Clint Bowyer – This is actually Clint Bowyer’s fifth-best track on the circuit, and he also owns the fifth-best average finish of everyone in the series at Indianapolis. In six career starts here, Bowyer has gathered two 4th-place finishes and has yet to finish outside of the top 20. When you look at the last two flat track races–New Hampshire and Pocono–the #15 ended up 3rd and 6th. Not too bad. It also doesn’t hurt that Bowyer has five single-digit finishes in the last seven Sprint Cup races. This team has been putting up solid qualifying efforts lately (that’s important here) and having Mark Martin as a teammate to learn from can only help Bowyer. Believe it or not, Clint is one of only seven drivers this year with at least ten top 10s. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him get number eleven here on Sunday.
13. Joey Logano – Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a really unique track, and not very similar to any of the others that the Sprint Cup Series visits. However, it is a flat track, and when you look at the other flat track–according to driveraverages.com–races this season (Phoenix, Pocono, New Hampshire), Joey has finished 10th, 1st, and 14th. At Indianapolis specifically, he has an average finish of 15.3 in three career starts and his best finish has been 9th (2010). What I really like is how this team has been running over the past month and a half: Logano has finished 14th or better in five of the last seven Sprint Cup Series races.
14. Carl Edwards – Well in case you haven’t been around for the last week, Cousin Carl has a new crew chief because Bob Osbourne stepped down. Click here to read who the new guy is. Even with the change, though, I’m not expecting much out of the #99 this weekend. This just isn’t their year, and there’s no reason to think it’s going to turn around at a track like Indianapolis. Edwards actually has the fourth-best average finish in the series here (11.0) and has grabbed a top 10 in each of the “even” years that he’s raced here in the Cup series–2006, 2008, and 2010. Will that continue on Sunday? I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s possible I guess. Carl’s average starting position at Indy over seven races has been 24.9.
15. Jamie McMurray – No one has been better (average finish-wise) over the past two season at Indy than Jamie Mac. He won the race in 2010 and finished 4th last season. McMurray stumbled a bit here in 2009, finishing 21st, but in 2008 he ended up 6th with a driver rating of 102.1. He’s going to be a sleeper pick for many people on Sunday, and for good reason. But one thing that discourages me from picking the #1 this week is how terrible they have been at qualifying this season. McMurray’s average starting position in 2012 thus far is 21.7, and as you know qualifying will be very important this weekend. If Jamie starts in the top 10 on Sunday, I’d give him the green light; in his three starts inside the top 10 at this track, McMurray has finished 7th, 6th, and 1st.
Note: If Juan Montoya can put a whole race together, he could challenge for the win this weekend. He’s generally real fast here but something happens in the end (surprising, right?). Also, Trevor Bayne is scheduled to race this weekend in the #21 Wood Brothers’ Ford.
Those To Avoid Entering The Crown Royal Presents the Curtiss Shaver 400 at the Brickyard:
Marcos Ambrose – This one is pretty easy. In four career starts here, the Tasmanian’s best finish has been 21st and he hasn’t had a driver rating over 67.7. Don’t expect Ambrose to learn how to run this place overnight. The #9 team may be running pretty well here as of late but that doesn’t even make me want to consider Marcos a sleeper this week. I’ll be surprised if he is in the top 10 at all during the race on Sunday.
Ryan Newman - I’m still surprised that not many people are mentioning just how mediocre this team has been all season long. Newman will finish in the teens on Sunday but that’s not what I want out of my fantasy racers. He sports an impressive 7.6 average start at Indianapolis but when you compare that to Ryan’s 20.2 average finish, it definitely makes you think again. He hasn’t had a top 10 at this track since 2002, although Newman has finished between 12th and 17th in each of the last four races here. I’d expect something similar out of the #39 on Sunday.
Martin Truex, Jr. - Okay, Martin, time to prove the racing world wrong. This team has impressed all season, and if Truex can have a good run here at Indianapolis on Sunday, he may finally show me that he is a legitimate Sprint Cup Series driver. In seven career starts at this track, Martin has an average finish of 23.4 and has zero top 10s. Another thing that I don’t like is that his best driver rating during a race here has been just 83.2. I’d be surprised if the #56 team finished in the top 10 on Sunday, but then again they have been surprising me week in and week out all year.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Loudon – LENOX Industrial Tools 301
We’re done with the Saturday night races for a while and this Sunday we will have some good old fashioned short track action at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Qualifying at this track is super important, but the last few races have come down to fuel mileage, so looking at the results you may not notice that. Seeing as we haven’t had many short track races this season, I’ll be going off of past performance at Loudon when making my picks this weekend as well as looking back at Bristol and Martinsville a little bit. This is not the weekend to take sleeper picks and hope for the best. There are favorites and guys that always run well here, and there’s no reason to go against them.
During The Last Race At Loudon…Tony Stewart was on the right side of a fuel mileage gamble this time as Clint Bowyer ran out of fuel in the closing laps and Smoke was able to grab his third career win at new Hampshire Motor Speedway. Brad Keselowski finished 2nd behind the #14 followed by Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, and Brian Vickers, who rounded out the top 5. Gordon led the most laps that day (78 out of the 300).
Practice Schedule…Unfortunately the Yahoo! Auto Racing players don’t get to see practice before setting their rosters this weekend. On Friday at noon, there will be the first practice session of the weekend followed by qualifying on 3:30 pm. Then, on Saturday, there will be two practices. The first will start at 9:00 am and Happy Hour will start at 11:00 am.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The LENOX Industrial Tools 301:
1. Tony Stewart – Smoke had a bit of a stumble in Kentucky but with his win at Daytona last weekend, he now has finished 3rd or better in four of the last five Sprint Cup Series races. You’re warned every year that this is the time to pick the #14, so hopefully you aren’t ignoring that. At New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Stewart is always a very good fantasy driver whether he has momentum or not. In twenty-six career starts here, he owns an average finish of 11.5 and has collected three victories, fourteen top 5s, and sixteen top 10s. What’s most impressive is that Tony has led 1,180 laps (averages out to about 45 per race) in his career at Loudon, which is second only to Jeff Gordon’s 1,304 in eight more starts. Stewart finished 2nd in this race last season and, as I said before, followed that up with a win in the fall during the Chase. He hasn’t had a driver rating below 90.0 at this track since 2006, and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Sunday. The #14 should be a contender for the win even if the race comes down to fuel mileage. If he didn’t run out of gas in the fall race in 2010 here, Stewart would be on a four-race streak of finishes 2nd or better at this track. Barring a major mechanical failure or something, Stewart should be considered a lock for a top 10, if not a top 5, on Sunday.
2. Jimmie Johnson – Five Time doesn’t lead a whole bunch of laps at Loudon (just 317 in twenty career starts) but he gets the finishes, and that’s a good thing for fantasy racers. He sports an average finish of 10.1 at this track (second-best in the series) and has visited victory lane three separate times (most recently in 2010). This team has struggled a bit in the last three events here (finishes of 25th, 5th, and 18th), but before that Johnson put together a string of seven straight finishes of 9th or better at this track. He hasn’t had a driver rating above 100.0 in the last three races here–which is a little concerning–but with the way this team has been running over the last month or two, it’s real hard to go against them. Jimmie finished 9th at Bristol earlier this year and then 12th at Martinsville, although he would have probably finished 2nd in the latter if that late wreck didn’t happen.
3. Jeff Gordon – New Hampshire will be one of (if not the) best opportunities for Gordon to grab a win to get into the Chase this year. What I’m hoping for (because he will be on my Yahoo! roster) is that what happened back in Martinsville will happen this Sunday, except that Gordon will actually win. Jeff has made thirty-four career starts at Loudon and has finished inside the top 5 in nearly half of them (fifteen), including three victories, the most recent coming in 1998. Over the last two years (four races), only one driver has an average driver rating better than Gordon, and that is Tony Stewart. The #24 finished 4th here last fall and the last time that Gordon finished worse than 15th at Loudon was back in 2005. He has also had a triple-digit driver rating in eight of the last eleven events here. Gordon had three straight finishes of 6th or better before Daytona and I expect him to finish there on Sunday as well.
4. Denny Hamlin – Despite only having one career victory here, Denny Hamlin does have the best average finish at Loudon of anyone in the series with 9.0. In his twelve career starts here, he has been able to grab five top 5s and has just one finish outside of the top 20. That one finish came last fall, when Hamlin ended up 29th after starting 28th. I wouldn’t expect that to happen again on Sunday, though. Before that, Denny finished 3rd and 2nd in the two previous events at New Hampshire, and he ended up 2nd in the 2009 September race at this rack as well. Hamlin finished 6th in Martinsville earlier this year and won the second race of the season at Phoenix, which some people compare to New Hampshire a bit. What’s a little concerning is his back injury, but the last time that Hamlin was injured it only made him better it seemed like.
5. Ryan Newman – Even though he (got lucky) won the race back at Martinsville, Newman has been disappointing for fantasy owners all season, so take this ranking with a huge grain of salt. This is where Newman should be, but there’s no guarantee. If this team looks a little off in practice, expect The Rocketman to fall in my final rankings and I would definitely consider picking someone else. He’s going to qualify up front, which is very important here, but that doesn’t mean he’ll finish there. Now that the doom and gloom part of this is over, let’s look at the good stuff with Newman. In twenty career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, The Rocketman has notched three victories and has finished inside the top 10 in 65% of them with an average finish of 13th. He won both poles here last season and led a total of 181 laps in the two races. Newman ended up 25th in the fall race, but remember that came down to fuel mileage in the end. Still, he has finishes inside the top 10 in four of the last five races, and won this race a year ago. He could go either way this week, but Newman will still be on my Yahoo! roster this weekend.
6. Clint Bowyer – The Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas have been really good on the short tracks thus far in 2012, and that makes me like Clint Bowyer even more this week. As I said earlier, Clint was in the lead in the final laps of the last race here at Loudon in 2011, but he ran out of gas and ended up finishing 26th. Yes, pretty disappointing, I know, especially if you had him on your fantasy roster that race (like I did). Still, Bowyer has led more laps at this track (229) than anyone over the past two seasons, and he does have two wins here. And those victories were absolute dominating performances. During the first, in 2007, Clint led 222 of the 300 laps and had a perfect driver rating of 150.0. In the second, which came in 2010, he led 177 of the 300 laps and had a near-perfect driver rating of 149.4. There’s no doubt that Bowyer knows how to get around this track, and like I said before, the MWR cars have been top-notch on the short tracks in 2012. Clint finished 4th at Bristol and 10th at Martinsville.
7. Kasey Kahne – Kahne will be one of the riskier picks this weekend, just like he has been all season. His average finish of 17.8 in sixteen career starts at this track is nothing to get excited about, but let’s look a little deeper into the races quick. Over the last two years (four events), Kahne has just one top 10 finish. However, in one of those outside the top 10 (June 2010, where Kahne finished 36th), he lost an engine after starting on the outside pole and leading 110 laps. Kahne also started 2nd in the most recent race here and led 43 laps but only finished 15th. What is promising is that Kasey has a driver rating of at least 100.0 in four of the last six New Hampshire races. There is no doubt that the #5 Chevrolet will be fast this weekend, but it will all come down to whether or not Kasey and this team can put a whole race together and bring the finish home. Only four drivers have a better average driver rating than Kahne at Loudon over the last years. He could easily finish inside the top 5 or outside the top 20, you really have no idea with KK right now.
8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Despite his struggles over the last few years, Junior has actually been pretty good at New Hampshire. In the last four races here, Earnhardt has the fifth-best average finish (11.0) and is one of only four drivers to finish inside the top 20 in all four events. He has been a pleasant surprise at nearly every race track this season, so don’t let the #88 sneak up on you this weekend. Junior has never won at Loudon, but has recorded ten top 10 finishes in twenty-five career starts and owns an average finish of 16.7. If he qualifies near the front on Friday, I would have a lot more confidence in picking the #88 on Sunday. Even if he doesn’ t, though, I still consider Junior to have a solid chance a top 10 finish this weekend. Big surprise, huh? Dale finished 15th at Bristol and 3rd at Martinsville.
9. Matt Kenseth – Of all the organizations in the Sprint Cup Series, Roush-Fenway Racing has just the fifth-best average finish at Loudon over the last two years. In short, you may want to lay off of the Roushkateers this weekend. Keep in mind that they generally run better here in the fall race during the Chase for whatever reason, especially if you are in an allocation league. However, it’s extremely difficult to go against Kenseth at any track this season because this team has been so strong week in and week out. I haven’t really noticed, but when I looked at this chart, it showed me exactly how consistent this team has been. Right now, you have to consider Kenseth the runaway favorite for the 2012 championship (wouldn’t that be a nice going away present?). At Loudon, Matt The Brat has been nothing too special, but he does top 10 finishes in half of his twenty-four starts here and boasts a decent average finish of 14th. What I don’t like is what he has done at New Hampshire recently: only one finish better than 17th in the last eight races. The good news? That one finish was in the fall race last season, where Kenseth came home in 6th. He’s not a lock for a top 10 by any means, but right now I don’t think Kenseth will be too bad of a pick on Sunday.
10. Greg Biffle – The Biff is pretty hit-or-miss here so make sure he looks good in practice (and starts up front) before picking him on Sunday. What’s good, though, is Biffle has finished 18th or better in each of the last seven races at Loudon, including his 3rd-place finish in the fall race last year (as I said earlier). He won here in 2008 and has averaged a finish of 16.6 in his nineteen career starts at this track. I’m expecting Biffle to improve upon that average on Sunday, though, even if it is just a little bit. He finished 13th at both Bristol and Martinsville earlier this season. In an allocation league like Yahoo!, I would stay away from the #16 this weekend because he is much too valuable at the other, larger race tracks.
11. Kevin Harvick – Well DeLana had her baby so we won’t have to worry about Harvick getting out of the car mid-race this weekend. I would think that would be a little bit of a distraction for Kevin this weekend, though, so you may want to shy away from him for the time being. He has also been pretty disappointing on the short tracks thus far in 2012 (yes, I still remember his monstrous letdown in Martinsville). Harvick isn’t too bad at Loudon, though. In twenty-two career starts here, he has compiled an average finish of 14.1 and has one victory (in 2006). He finished 12th in the most recent event here and got top 5s in both races at New Hampshire during the 2010 campaign. A stat that I like is that Harvick has finished inside the top 20 in sixteen of his twenty-two starts. However, with him being such a “top” driver in most leagues, I’m not sure I would take him on Sunday. I think there are better choices going into the weekend, but we’ll have to see how the #29 looks in practice before I make my final decision.
12. Joey Logano – I don’t know if you’ve noticed it, but ever since the rumors that Logano could be out of a job next season have heated up, this team has really rose to the occasion. I still think Joey is spending too much time in the Nationwide Series, but that argument is for a different time. At Loudon, Sliced Bread does have one career win (back in 2009), but that was a rain-shortened event. Still, you have to put yourself in the position to win races like that, and I like my fantasy picks to have the guts to take a risk like that. What’s interesting when you look at Joey’s Loudon stats is that he has been sort of “on-off” his entire career here. In the three July races that he has ran, Logano has finished 1st, 9th, and 4th. In the four September starts, he has finished 32nd, 21st, 35th, and 14th. If you are superstitious like that, go ahead and take the #20 this weekend. He shouldn’t be a bad pick by any means.
13. Brad Keselowski – BK is going to be one of those guys this weekend that could go either way once we see them on the track. He’s either going to look good and go up in my rankings on Saturday, and the exact opposite. Keselowski has made five career starts at this 1.0-mile race track and owns an average finish of 17.4. He grabbed a top 10 in his first career start here back in 2009, and, as I said before, finished runner-up to Tony Stewart in the fall race last season. Brad’s driver rating in that race was just 93.8, though, so it wasn’t just a good car that got him up there. Still, Keselowski knows how to get around this track (he won the pole for the fall 2010 race) and he has been getting better and better every year since coming to the Sprint Cup series full time. Because of that, you can’t really look at his history at a certain racetrack and use that to predict how he will race. Once we see the cars on the track, however, we should find out whether the Blue Deuce will be any good on Sunday.
14. Martin Truex, Jr. – As I said before, Michael Waltrip Racing has been great on the short tracks in 2012, and that is part of the reason that I have Truex ranked this weekend. Believe it or not, this is actually his fifth-best track on the circuit. In twelve career starts here, Martin owns an average finish of 15.1 and has compiled five top 10s–the most recent coming in this race last season. Truex followed that solid performance with a 16th-place effort in the 2011 fall race, and even led three laps that day. When you look at the short tracks this season, the #56 has been a valuable pick: Truex finished 3rd at Bristol and followed that up with a 5th-place at Martinsville. Keep an eye on him in practice.
15. Jeff Burton – He’s not going to go out there and challenge for the win on Sunday but Jeff Burton could be a very valuable asset in fantasy racing this weekend at Loudon. He has raced here thirty-four times and he just gets how to race the track–twenty-nine of those events have ended with Burton in the top 20. He’s coming off of his best finish of the season last weekend in Daytona (2nd) and I could seriously see him challenging for a top 10 on Sunday when the checkered flag flies. In the last five races here, Burton hasn’t finished worse than 16th and has completed every single lap (1,502 in total). His career average finish here is 13.6 and Jeff has visited victory lane four separate times at this track, the most recent coming in 2000. He would be an excellent “start saver” pick this weekend in the Yahoo! Auto Racing game.
Extra Note: Brian Vickers will be in the #55 Toyota this weekend and Sam Hornish, Jr. will race the #22 Dodge in place of A.J. Allmendinger, who is suspended.
Those To Avoid Entering The LENOX Industrial Tools 301:
Marcos Ambrose – At Loudon, I like to pick drivers that can conserve their brakes, and Ambrose is one of the best at it. For some reason, though, he hasn’t found much success at this 1-mile race track. In six career starts here, Marcos has averaged a finish right around 20th and has never had a driver rating over 74.9. He ended up 9th in this race last season but when you look at his Yahoo! chart from that race, you can tell the #9 wasn’t a top ten car.
Paul Menard - Just stay away. It’s pretty pathetic when your best finish in ten career starts at a track has been 20th, and that is the case with Paul Menard. He tends to qualify well here, but the finishes just don’t show up. In the last two years, Menard has started 14th or better in all four races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Qualifying is important at this track but so is being able to race well. Paul has just one lead-lap finish in the last six events at this track.
Kyle Busch - This is Rowdy Busch so it’s hard to say not to pick him, but I just think that there are too many other (better) options this week. Kyle does have one win here (back in 2006), but in fourteen career starts at Loudon he has more finishes outside of the top 10 than he does inside. That’s something that I do not like to see. Not to mention that this team has been under-performing for the last month-and-a-half now. If he starts on the pole and looks the fastest in practice, I may change my mind.
Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Daytona 2 – Coke Zero 400
Well, believe it or not, after the race on Saturday night we will officially be halfway through the 2012 NASCAR season. This Saturday also marks the first “double” stop of the year, seeing as the Cup series raced here back in February for the Daytona 500. The events at restrictor plate race tracks are really almost impossible to predict, and really I find it a bit of a waste of time putting a whole bunch of time/effort in your fantasy rosters on weeks like this. That being said, it’s a good thing to pay attention to how drivers are talking about their car this week. I also find the events at Daytona and Talladega an excellent time to pick drivers you normally wouldn’t (especially in allocation leagues). Practice speeds mean nothing this week, and neither does qualifying. The driver that wins the Coke Zero 400 on Saturday night will do so because they were at the right place at the right time (along with good horsepower underneath the hood).
During The Last Race At Daytona…Well after a rain delay and Juan Montoya nearly burning the place down, the 2012 Daytona 500 champion was finally crowned: Matt Kenseth. He led 50 of the 202 laps that night and was followed to the line by fan-favorite Dale Earnhardt, Jr., who passed Greg Biffle right before crossing the line. Denny Hamlin, who led the most laps that night (57), finished 4th, and Jeff Burton rounded out the top 5.
Practice Schedule…Like I said before, practice means absolutely nothing this week. For those that play Yahoo! Auto Racing and want to base their picks on it, though, we do get to see the cars on track before locking down our rosters. There will be two practices on Thursday (at 4:00 pm and 6:30 pm) and then Yahoo! rosters are due early Friday morning. At 4:00 pm on Friday, qualifying will be held and then the Coke Zero 400 is set to start around 7:15 pm on Saturday evening. Maybe TNT will step up their game this weekend (I wouldn’t hold your breath) with a few races under their belt because so far, in my opinion, their coverage has been downright terrible.
My Top Five For The Coke Zero 400:
1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Yes, I know this pick is cliché, but my reasoning goes farther than just “he’s good this year and he’s good on the plate tracks.” If you read my 2012 Daytona 500 Preview earlier this year, you know about Junior’s streak he has going on at this track. Let me refresh your memory: last season (odd year), Junior finished 24th and 19th in points-paying races at Daytona; in 2010, he finished 2nd and 4th; in 2009, 27th and 39th; in 2008, 9th and 8th; in 2007, 32nd and 36th. As you know, Earnhardt brought the #88 home 2nd in the season-opening race this year. He also finished 9th at Talladega in May. I think he’s too valuable at other tracks this season to use Junior in an allocation league, but he should be a great pick so I’ll let you make that decision.
2. Jeff Gordon - It’s really crunch-time for this team. If they want any chance at making the Chase this year, Gordon is going to have to put the #24 in victory lane here soon. One thing that I like drivers to have going into restrictor plate tracks is momentum, and with his 5th-place finish at Kentucky last weekend, Gordon has now finished 6th or better in each of the last three Sprint Cup Series races. He started on the pole at Talladega earlier this season but finished 33rd. Still, Jeff leads all active drivers with six career wins at Daytona and has finished 6th and 3rd in the last two July races here. It’s nowhere near a guaranteed pick, but I think Gordon has a great shot to get a win on Saturday night.
3. Matt Kenseth – Not only did Kenseth win here back in February, but he followed that up with a solid 3rd-place effort at Talladega in May. He also led 73 laps that day. One thing that I have noticed over the years is that if a driver is having a good year on the restrictor plate tracks, for some reason it generally stays like that for the entire season and all four stops at Daytona and Talladega. Kenseth finished 2nd in this race last season and, believe it or not owns six top 10s in the last eight points-paying races at Daytona. The other two races ended with Matt in 15th and 34th. While we’re all waiting for him to announce where he will drive in 2013, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Matt Kenseth in victory lane once again at Daytona on Saturday night. Remember that he won his Duel race here back in February as well.
4. Greg Biffle – As I said before, when a driver is doing good on the restrictor plate tracks, it’s hard to go against them. Once again, case in point: Greg Biffle. He finished 3rd in the season-opening Daytona 500 and followed that up with a 5th-place finish at Talladega in May. Overall, The Biff hasn’t been great at this track throughout his career, but he does have a victory here (back in the July race in 2003). I will warn you, though: Greg has a tendency to do better in the Daytona 500 than in the July race here. Over the last five years, his average finish in The Great American Race has been 14.2 while his July average finish has been 24.8. In allocation leagues specifically, I wouldn’t use Biffle this week because he is too valuable on the intermediate tracks.
5. Denny Hamlin – Denny led the most laps in the Daytona 500 this season and when you look at his stats here, it’s obvious that he knows how to get to the front: in each of the last six races at Daytona, Hamlin has led led at least one lap, with a total of 136 over the two-and-a-half years. Remember, if you’re out front, it’s highly unlikely that you will be caught up in a wreck (not saying that we’ll see many on Saturday, because I honestly don’t think we will). He has finished inside the top 5 in four of the last seven Sprint Cup races and I think Hamlin will be a major player on Saturday night in the Coke Zero 400.
A Few “Outside The Box” Picks For The Coke Zero 400:
Brad Keselowski - It’s kind of hard to believe that Bad Brad hasn’t found success at all at Daytona. As you probably remember, he got the win earlier this year in May at Talladega, his second Cup victory at the track. His plate racing skills haven’t translated to much at this track, though. In six career points-paying races at Daytona, Keselowski has a best finish of just 15th and four finishes of 29th or worse. For our sake, I hope other fantasy racers look at that and stay away from BK this weekend, because I think he’s going to be good. He’s coming off the win last weekend in Kentucky, and that begs the question: is Keselowski now an elite driver? Click here to vote yes or no. I also like when a driver has confidence coming into a plate race.
Kurt Busch - You know, I kind of jumped the gun earlier this season with this team in the Daytona 500. They’ve been together for half of a season now and I think they’re starting to gel a lot more (see Sonoma race a couple weeks ago). We all know that these Finch cars have horsepower on the plate tracks, and Busch is a real good racer on them even though he hasn’t won a points-paying race at either Daytona or Talladega. Don’t forget that he was running 2nd with 8 laps to go at Talladega earlier this year and then got spun by Brad Keselowski.
Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose is nowhere near great at restrictor plate racing, but there are a few things that I really like about picking him this week. He brought the #9 Ford home in 13th back in February, and posted his career-best finish at this track (6th) during his rookie year. Marcos started in the top 5 at Talladega as well and brought his car home in one piece in 14th. Finally, and what I really like most, is that Ambrose hasn’t finished worse than 13th in Sprint Cup action since the end of may. Hard to believe, huh? If you want to pick someone this week that could get you a bunch of points–and one that not many other people will go with–pick Ambrose. Just hope that him and Aric Almirola can work well together.
A Favorite To Avoid For The Coke Zero 400:
Tony Stewart - This is not at all a “avoid like the plague” for Smoke this weekend. We all know he’s good at plate racing and he could easily take the checkered flag on Saturday night. However, I’d like him a whole lot better if this was, say, 2006. In the July races at Daytona since that time (starting in 2007), Tony has finished 38th, 20th, 1st, 25th, and 11th. In this year’s Daytona 500 he started 3rd but finished 16th, and at Talladega in May he ended up four laps down in 24th. He will be a popular pick on Saturday but you probably won’t find Smoke on my rosters.
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